No Deal Brexit is a near-certainty now. So, who will get the blame? The finger-pointing has already started.
The government says it does still want to negotiate a new Brexit deal with the EU. But the minister in charge of no deal preparations, Michael Gove, says Brussels isn’t interested.
EU Open for a Deal Says Irish Prime Minister
Leo Varadkar, Ireland’s Taoiseach (Prime Minister) says EU is Open to New Brexit Deal if Boris Johnson Drops Red Lines and Offers Concessions.
Mrs May’s key red lines were that the UK would leave the single market, would leave the customs union, would end free movement and would bring an end to the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice in Britain.
Mr Varadkar said: “We ended up with the withdrawal agreement and the backstop because of all the red lines that were drawn up by the British Government.
“Now if we’re going back to square one and those red lines are being changed, then we’ve something to talk about.”
Mr Varadkar made clear that Ireland was not prepared to renegotiate the backstop – the insurance policy which it insists is crucial to ensure an open border on the island of Ireland but which unionists have overwhelmingly opposed because it would erect barriers between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.
UK Open for a Deal
Let’s modify the above link title by changing just a few characters: UK is Open to New Brexit Deal if the EU Drops Red Lines and Offers Concessions.
Is that not equally valid?
If the EU can have “red lines” why can’t the UK?
Just as the EU is “open for a deal” the UK is “open for a deal” on the exact terms Varadkar wants, just in reverse.
Varadkar Points a Finger
“If no deal happens on 31 October, it will be as a consequence of decision made in London,” says Varadkar.
Boris Johnson can of course make the identical claim.
The reality is No Deal if no one is willing to budge.
It is crystal clear the EU tried to screw the UK. It is caught on film.
Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, admitted on film, that the EU intended to use the backstop as a means of applying permanent pressure on the UK.
- The EU bragged about crushing Theresa May: “We Got More Than We Hoped“
- The EU admitted Theresa May wanted a customs union all along.
- Michel Barnier spoke on film of “using Ireland for future negotiations. Isolating Ireland and not closing this point, leaving it open for the next two or three years.”
- Barnier used the words “permanent pressure” in regards to the backstop.
- The EU bragged about “getting rid of the UK on EU terms” and turning the UK into a “colony”
Why Did the EU Authorize the Film?
- To mock the UK
- To openly show that no one could leave the EU without being severely punished.
- Pure arrogance
The EU cannot hide its intent of trapping the the UK in a permanent customs union, with no say in policy.
Assigning Blame: How? When?
There is certainly much blame to spread around. But how? And when?
Theresa May was totally incompetent and let the EU run all over her.
May stated countless times, “No deal is better than a bad deal” yet she negotiated the worst treaty in history.
Not only were May’s negotiation skills pathetic (some believe purposely so), she also blundered politically.
It was May, not parliament who asked for and received Brexit extensions. Had at any point May told Parliament “I will not back extensions so you either take my deal or No Deal”, I believe her deal would have passed.
Instead, May alternated between attempts to persuade Tories they she would remain and the Remainers that she would go for No Deal.
Both the Remainers and the Hard Brexiteers called her bluff. Both sides were essentially correct, sort of, as neither happened, under May. What will happen under Boris Johnson is another matter.
Barnier is to be congratulated for negotiating the best, most one-sided deal in history. Trump would be proud.
But it was so one-sided that the UK parliament rejected the deal in three “meaningful votes” leading to the forced, tearful resignation of Theresa May.
Jeremy Corbyn blasted Theresa May for her deal. She blames him for No Deal because he would not back her pathetic deal.
Macron is a relatively minor player but he was opposed to further extensions that May asked for and received reluctantly. October 31, is a Macron-induced compromise. Had the date been later, there would have been more time to oust Johnson and ask for still more extensions or for Corbyn to win an election.
Varadkar’s role in this mess is of a more recent nature. If he is foolish enough to take a bullet for EU solidarity, there cannot be a deal.
Varadkar reiterated today that the deal on the table for the UK is “as good as it gets“.
What is Johnson supposed to do other than say “shove it up your ass“, albeit in more polite terms.
Johnson inherited this mess from Theresa May.
May said she would deliver Brexit and didn’t, not even with three extensions.
The Tories will get clobbered if Johnson fails to delivers.
Remainers in General
Remainers second choice would be a customs union, not No Deal.
Like Corbyn, the Remainers including the Liberal Democrats and Scottish MPs could have backed Theresa May’s deal which failed by only a few votes.
The Remainers foolishly believed that Parliament could stop No Deal and they would get a People’s Vote Referendum that would succeed.
The Remainers got Theresa May correct, winning that battle, but losing the War.
Let’s fill in the percentages taking all of the above into account.
By Country, Who Gets the Blame for No Deal
- EU: 55%
- UK: 40%
- Ireland: 5% (perhaps higher from a more recent aspect). If Ireland would bend, so might the EU.
Call it 60-40 or so in favor of the EU.
By Person, Who Gets the Blame for No Deal
- Michel Barnier: 40% His Brexit negotiation team attempted to screw the UK and nearly got away with it.
- Theresa May: 25% She never really wanted to leave. Her negotiation tactics (lack thereof) would have put the UK into a permanent customs union at the mercy of the EU forever. The UK parliament rejected her pathetic deal three times.
- Remainers in General: 15% – I am sure the Remainers would prefer May’s poor deal to No Deal. And they had numerous chances to accept her deal. Instead, they held out for the impossible.
- Leo Varadkar: 10% – all of it recently with his silly statements. There is no chance of a deal unless he bends. The 10% is on the assumption that Varadkar won’t bend.
- Jeremy Corbyn: 5% – The major irony is Corbyn wants a customs union, nearly identical to the one May negotiated. He could have at any time backed May’s deal. I assign Corbyn only 5% because politically-speaking it would have been very difficult for him to back May’s deal. He could have offered free votes though, instead of the Whip.
- Emmanuel Macron: 5% – The final extension compromise was poorly timed. One can thank Macron for that. There is no time for Parliament to stop No Deal. A longer extension, which Macron would not support, would have given the UK parliament more time for shenanigans.
- Boris Johnson: 0% – He is doing exactly what he said he would do. The UK parliament did no believe him, nor did the EU. That’s not his fault. Politically, Johnson must deliver Brexit, not some pathetic rehash of Theresa May’s deal. That is the political reality. Johnson gets no blame.
One Sided Deals Don’t Work
Total that up and it’s roughly 55-45 in favor of blaming the EU.
There’s plenty of blame to go around. This will be debated for years.
But the moral of the story is one-sided deals ultimately fail. And the Barnier-May deal was amazingly one-sided.
They get the blame, not Johnson.
There is still some minor chance of a deal, but Ireland has to bend first.
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